AVS 49th International Symposium
    Advancing Toward Sustainability Topical Conference Tuesday Sessions
       Session AT-TuA

Invited Paper AT-TuA8
Climate Change Science Economics and Politics

Tuesday, November 5, 2002, 4:20 pm, Room C-210

Session: Benign Manufacturing, Climate Change, International Trade and World Economy, and Theological Considerations of Sustainable Development
Presenter: W. Moomaw, The Fletcher School
Correspondent: Click to Email
The science of climate change has been studied for over 100 years, but only in the past 15 years has it been a subject of policy and diplomacy. There is now a substantial body of scientific knowledge that demonstrates that certain atmospheric trace gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide trap heat that keeps the earth's average temperature around 60 deg. F. Human activities have increased each of these gases substantially: carbon dioxide by 30% and methane by over 100%. Temperature measurements on land and in the oceans demonstrate a clear rise in temperature of about 1 deg F during the past century. Measurements several miles above the earth's surface show a smaller increase. Since fossil fuels are associated with both carbon dioxide, methane and some nitrous oxide releases, attention has focused on the energy sector as the major target of mitigation efforts. Modeling of the climate system and the economy with and without climate change show a range of energy intensity have generated an intense debate over what to do. The U.S. has withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol that would require emissions reductions 7% below 1990 levels by 2012, but remains committed to the Climate Convention that identifies climate change as a problem requiring action. The Kyoto Protocol could be ratified by enough countries to enter into force for a majority of industrial countries even if the U.S. that is responsible for about one-quarter of emissions does not participate. This has major implications for international trade and for industrial design. This presentation will attempt to untangle claims and counterclaims to reveal what is at stake and what are some possible outcomes for planetary systems and for the world and U.S. economy.