AVS 49th International Symposium
    Advancing Toward Sustainability Topical Conference Tuesday Sessions
       Session AT-TuA

Invited Paper AT-TuA5
Global Warming: How Much is Too Much?

Tuesday, November 5, 2002, 3:20 pm, Room C-210

Session: Benign Manufacturing, Climate Change, International Trade and World Economy, and Theological Considerations of Sustainable Development
Presenter: J.B. Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.
Correspondent: Click to Email
The Earth's climate warmed about one degree Fahrenheit during the 20th century. Most of the warming in the last half of the century was the result of greenhouse gas emissions from societal activities. Should emissions continue increasing without a concerted effort to control them, projections are that temperatures could increase about 3 to 10°F by 2100. Policy makers are struggling to control the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. While initial efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol will at best slow the rate of emissions growth, ultimately concentrations of greenhouse gases need to be stabilized. What is an appropriate target for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases? The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the United States ratified, states that concentrations of greenhouse gases will eventually be stabilized at a level that is not dangerous. This talk, which is based on a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, addresses different ways in which policy makers may be able to determine what is a safe (i.e., not dangerous) level of climate change. Five "reasons for concern" about climate are addressed: 1) impacts on unique and threatened systems; 2) effects of change in extreme weather; 3) inequitable distributional effects of climate change; 4) total (aggregate) impacts of climate change; 5) risk of major changes in the climate system. The literature on climate change impacts was surveyed to determine what a dangerous level of climate change may be for each reason for concern.