Invited Paper IPF-MoM1
Solar Photovoltaics: At the Tipping Point

Monday, October 15, 2007, 8:00 am, Room 602/603

The prospects of current and coming solar-photovoltaic (PV) technologies are envisioned, arguing this solar-electricity source is at a tipping point in the complex worldwide energy outlook. The co-requirements for policy and technology investments are strongly supported. The emphasis of this presentation is on R&D advances (cell, materials, and module options), with indications of the limitations and strengths of crystalline (Si and GaAs) and thin-film (a-Si:H, Si, Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)₂, CdTe). The contributions and technological pathways for now and near-term technologies (silicon, III-Vs, and thin films) and status and forecasts for next-generation PV (organics, nanotechnologies, non-conventional junction approaches) are evaluated. Recent advances in concentrators, new directions for thin films, and materials/device technology issues are discussed in terms of technology evolution and progress. Insights to technical and other investments needed to tip photovoltaics to its next level of contribution as a significant clean-energy partner in the world energy portfolio. The need for R&D accelerating the now and imminent (evolutionary) technologies balanced with work in mid-term (disruptive) approaches is highlighted. Moreover, technology progress and ownership for next generation solar PV mandates a balanced investment in research on revolutionary (long-term) technologies (quantum dots, multi-multijunctions, intermediate-band concepts, nanotubes, bio-inspired, thermophotonics, . . . ) having high-risk, but extremely high performance and cost returns for our next generations of energy consumers. This presentation provides insights (some irreverent, some entertaining) into how this technology has developed---and where we can expect to be by this mid-21st century.