AVS 53rd International Symposium & Exhibition November 12 -17, 2006 Moscone West Convention Center  San Francisco, CA

AVEM Fall Seminar and Annual Business Meeting
Tuesday, November 14, 2006 7:45 a.m. Room 3002, Moscone West Convention Center
 

Held just prior to the opening of the AVS Exhibition - part of the 53rd International AVS Symposium

• Registration & Continental Networking Breakfast:  7:45 a.m.

• Seminar:  8:30 a.m. - 9:30 a.m.

• AVEM Annual Business Meeting:  9:30 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.
   

Seminar: The Looming Downward Turning-Point in the IC Market

Advanced Forecasting's crystal ball is once again indicating that another recession may be looming on the horizon. While the semiconductor industry has been on a continuous growth phase now for just over four years, it may be approaching a similar situation of over-heating that just preceded the recessions of 1996 and 2001. Advanced Forecasting will address the question of whether it is time to prepare for another downturn or just enjoy the ride.

This leading forecasting house for the semiconductor and related industries, has accurately predicted each of the major turning booms and busts since 1986, including the devastating 2001 recession, using a proprietary quantitative-based model. Its 90% accuracy rate and refusal to modify any of its forecasts retroactively are based on its use of only economic factors and hard data as inputs to its forecast model, as opposed to surveying industry executives and relying on human opinion.

Advanced Forecasting will share several of their forecasts such as semiconductor equipment, materials, and wafers, and its analysis of the growth of IC unit shipments versus IC revenues that impact a possible downturn.

Presenters:

Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder of Advanced Forecasting, is an expert in data analysis, econometrics, and forecast modeling. A quantitative forecasting model that he developed in 1986 has accurately predicted the peaks and troughs of the Silicon Cycle, including the 2001 recession, the strength and timing of the 2003 upturn, and most recently the slowdown in the second half of 2004. The forecast model has also been successfully applied to hundreds of company specific product lines over the past 20 years.  Dr. Handelsman holds an Industrial Engineering (Technion, Haifa), an M.B.A. (Tel-Aviv University), and a Ph.D. (Market Research and Econometrics from Purdue University).  

Rosa Luis is the director of marketing and sales for Advanced Forecasting.  She conducts analyses of clients' data, co- writes the monthly industry analysis, co-instructs forecasting workshops, and presents at conferences such as NEDA, ESCA, and AVEM. Prior to joining Advanced Forecasting, Ms. Luis was an industry analyst tracking the storage market.  Ms. Luis holds a bachelor of science degree in business administration with a concentration in marketing from San Jose State University. She is currently pursuing an M.B.A. from Santa Clara University.

Registration

There is no charge to attend the Networking Breakfast, Seminar & Annual Business Meeting.

However registration is required.  When your registration is acknowledged, details of the room assigned for the program in the Moscone West Convention Center will be provided.

Provide your full mailing address, telephone number, and E-mail address to aveminfo@avem.org.  Please ask colleagues to also send this information if they plan to attend.

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New!

AVEM International 2006 Index/Buyer's Guide and Directory

Providing Products and Services for the Vacuum Industry

To request a copy of one or both of these valuable resources go to http://www.avem.org/AboutAVEMIntlF/AVEM_Sub.html
 

Association of Vacuum Equipment Manufacturers International
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505/856-6716  FAX
aveminfo@avem.org  E-mail

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